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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Nasr and Al Bataeh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Al Nasr and Al Bataeh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.21 xG and Al Bataeh 1.51 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.94 / defence 1.14 against Al Bataeh attack 0.96 / defence 0.92, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 30% | Draw 25% | Al Bataeh 44%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 58%, Al Bataeh 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Nasr's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Al Bataeh's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights