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Dominant Al-Jazira run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Sharjah FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Jazira beat Sharjah FC 5-0 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.50 xG and Sharjah FC 1.40 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sharjah FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.04 / defence 0.85 against Sharjah FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 40% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 35%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 52%, Sharjah FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Jazira's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Sharjah FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.55 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Jazira win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights