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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 0.97 xG and Sharjah FC 1.51 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 0.80 / defence 1.22 against Sharjah FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.81, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 24% | Draw 26% | Sharjah FC 50%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 65%, Sharjah FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Jazira's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Sharjah FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights