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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Jazira.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al-Jazira 0-3 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 0.94 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.02 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Jazira fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.84 / defence 0.71, drawn from 36/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 32% | Draw 31% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 37%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 53%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Jazira's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.53. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights