Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Dibba Al Hisn 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Jazira beat Dibba Al Hisn 1-0 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.82 xG and Dibba Al Hisn 1.05 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Jazira fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Dibba Al Hisn landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 0.93 / defence 0.89 against Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.84 / defence 1.22, drawn from 42/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 55% | Draw 23% | Dibba Al Hisn 22%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 71%, Dibba Al Hisn 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Jazira's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.59. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dibba Al Hisn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights