🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Dibba Al-Fujairah 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Jazira beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 4-3 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 2.48 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.65 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dibba Al-Fujairah outscored their 0.65 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.27 / defence 0.82 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.59 / defence 1.34, drawn from 47/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 77% | Draw 15% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 8%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 77%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 52%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Jazira's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights