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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Baniyas SC defy the odds to beat Al-Jazira 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baniyas SC beat Al-Jazira 0-1 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 2.07 xG and Baniyas SC 0.94 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Jazira fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 0.99 / defence 0.86 against Baniyas SC attack 0.77 / defence 1.19, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 63% | Draw 21% | Baniyas SC 16%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Baniyas SC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 69%, Baniyas SC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Jazira's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Baniyas SC's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Baniyas SC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights