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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Wahda FC edge out Al-Jazira 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Wahda FC beat Al-Jazira 0-1 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 0.84 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.14 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Jazira fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 0.85 / defence 0.89 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.74, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 27% | Draw 31% | Al Wahda FC 43%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 57%, Al Wahda FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Jazira's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights