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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad Kalba edge out Al-Jazira 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Al-Jazira 1-2 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.27 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.33 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 0.82 / defence 1.18 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 35% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 38%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 65%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Jazira's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.43 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights