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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Jazira cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Al-Dhafra.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Jazira beat Al-Dhafra 4-2 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.54 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.71 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Dhafra outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 0.83 / defence 0.82 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.68 / defence 1.43, drawn from 34/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 57% | Draw 26% | Al-Dhafra 17%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 25%, Al-Dhafra 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Jazira's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Dhafra's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.75 PPG, Al-Dhafra 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Jazira win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights