🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Al Bataeh 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Jazira beat Al Bataeh 1-0 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.14 xG and Al Bataeh 0.95 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Bataeh landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 0.78 / defence 0.89 against Al Bataeh attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 40% | Draw 30% | Al Bataeh 30%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 53%, Al Bataeh 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Jazira's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al Bataeh's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights