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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Jazira cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Bataeh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Jazira beat Al Bataeh 2-0 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 0.95 xG and Al Bataeh 1.48 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Bataeh landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 0.80 / defence 1.15 against Al Bataeh attack 0.91 / defence 0.78, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 24% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 49%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Al-Jazira win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 63%, Al Bataeh 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Jazira's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Bataeh's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.39 PPG, Al Bataeh 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Jazira win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights