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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Ain edge out Al-Jazira 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Ain beat Al-Jazira 0-1 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.38 xG and Al Ain 1.71 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Jazira fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.14 / defence 0.95 against Al Ain attack 1.28 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 31% | Draw 24% | Al Ain 45%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 50%, Al Ain 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Jazira's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Ain's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Ain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights