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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Ain cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Jazira.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Ain beat Al-Jazira 1-3 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 2.85 xG and Al Ain 1.73 xG, a combined 4.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Jazira fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Al Ain outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.29 / defence 0.83 against Al Ain attack 1.37 / defence 1.18, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 60% | Draw 19% | Al Ain 21%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Al Ain win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 67% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 68%, Al Ain 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Jazira's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Al Ain's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.44 PPG, Al Ain 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Ain win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights