Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-1 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad Kalba versus Sharjah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 4 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium: 2W 4D 1L from 7 Pro League appearances (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sharjah FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC away from home this season: 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 1.40 for Sharjah FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 71% of their games, Sharjah FC in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ittihad Kalba lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Sharjah FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Ittihad Kalba half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sharjah FC half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 62% versus Sharjah FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 38% | Sharjah FC 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.36 xG and Sharjah FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.832 / defence 1.180 | Sharjah FC attack 1.030 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.277. Sharjah FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 13 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 32% | Draw 28% | Sharjah FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Sharjah FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 71% | Sharjah FC 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 32% | Draw 28% | Sharjah FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.36 / Sharjah FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.832 / def 1.180 | Sharjah FC attack 1.030 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Sharjah FC xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 4 February 2022 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 0 - 1 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 32% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack rating (0.83) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sharjah FC's attack (1.03x) against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
32%
3.17
28%
3.52
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.91
1.55
Sharjah FC xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
7%
14.97
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.55 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent record stands at 4W 6D 3L from 13 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 4L across 13 games — 1.77 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Al-Ittihad Kalba against 1.77 for Sharjah FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad Kalba have managed 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sharjah FC's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.69 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 4W 6D 3L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 7W 2D 4L in their last 13 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Sharjah FC away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.50 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 0-4 on 20 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sharjah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
1
Draws
7
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, Sharjah FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 67% for Sharjah FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 67% (Sharjah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 67% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 67% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.36 xG and Sharjah FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Sharjah FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.28, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 32% | Draw 28% | Sharjah FC 40%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 38%, Sharjah FC 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.38 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.