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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC finished level at 2-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.56 xG and Sharjah FC 1.67 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.88 / defence 1.18 against Sharjah FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.28, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 36% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 41%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 62%, Sharjah FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Sharjah FC's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights