🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Al-Ittihad Kalba defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Sharjah FC 2-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.98 xG and Sharjah FC 1.48 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Sharjah FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.57, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 25% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 48%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ittihad Kalba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 68%, Sharjah FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Sharjah FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights