Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad Kalba versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 17 October 2025 at 16:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad Kalba have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 3W 1D 6L at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
It is worth noting that Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 61% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 61% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.82 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.848 / defence 0.882 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.934 / defence 0.743. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.264. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence strength of 0.743 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 31 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 28% | Draw 32% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Oct 2025, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 28% | Draw 32% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.82 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.848 / def 0.882 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.934 / def 0.743 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 16:45 on Friday 17 October 2025 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 0 - 0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 28% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W | Draws 3 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack rating (0.85) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (0.93x) against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
28%
3.55
32%
3.13
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
1.86
1.04
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
18%
5.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 16.2 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.04 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba come into this having played 31 games, going 11W 9D 11L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai sit at 2.35 PPG from 31 outings (22W 7D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home form reads 5W 4D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken 2.13 points per game from 15 outings (9W 5D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.97 scored and 0.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 11W 9D 11L in their last 31 games (1.35 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 22W 7D 2L in their last 31 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.27 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.13 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 5-1 on 11 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
6
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 53%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 60% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 33%; Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 67% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 60% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ittihad Kalba's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.82 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.04 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.85 / defence 0.88 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.93 / defence 0.74, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 28% | Draw 32% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 40%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 61%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.