🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.92 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.51 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.17 / defence 0.70, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 23% | Draw 26% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights