Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad Kalba versus Khorfakkan in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 13:25 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1W 4D 5L at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Khorfakkan have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Khorfakkan have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad Kalba register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Khorfakkan in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 2 for Khorfakkan and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Ittihad Kalba half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Khorfakkan half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 58% versus Khorfakkan 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 63% | Khorfakkan 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.92 xG and Khorfakkan 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.909 / defence 1.041 | Khorfakkan attack 0.801 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.739. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 38 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 47% | Draw 26% | Khorfakkan 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Khorfakkan 3.70. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Khorfakkan 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Feb 2024, 13:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 47% | Draw 26% | Khorfakkan 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.92 / Khorfakkan 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.909 / def 1.041 | Khorfakkan attack 0.801 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.739 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Khorfakkan xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 13:25 on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 47% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W | Draws 1 | Khorfakkan 2W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.80x) against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.87
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.37
1.45
Khorfakkan xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
4%
25.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.45 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent record stands at 12W 9D 17L from 38 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 20L across 38 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Al-Ittihad Kalba against 1.00 for Khorfakkan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad Kalba have managed 6W 4D 8L from 18 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 1W 5D 12L across 18 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad Kalba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.26 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 10W 8D 20L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.22 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
3
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Khorfakkan have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-0 Khorfakkan.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 61%, Khorfakkan 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 61% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 28% of games; Khorfakkan in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 61% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 61% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.92 xG and Khorfakkan 1.45 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Khorfakkan attack 0.80 / defence 1.27, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 47% | Draw 26% | Khorfakkan 27%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 63%, Khorfakkan 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.18 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.