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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Baniyas SC edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baniyas SC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.31 xG and Baniyas SC 1.43 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.91 / defence 1.18 against Baniyas SC attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 34% | Draw 26% | Baniyas SC 40%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 65%, Baniyas SC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Baniyas SC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.15 PPG, Baniyas SC 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baniyas SC win broke the near-deadlock. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights