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Shock result as Baniyas SC defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baniyas SC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.89 xG and Baniyas SC 1.12 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 2.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.14 / defence 1.04 against Baniyas SC attack 0.78 / defence 1.37, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 73% | Draw 17% | Baniyas SC 11%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a Baniyas SC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 71%, Baniyas SC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Baniyas SC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.13 PPG, Baniyas SC 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baniyas SC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights