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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Wasl FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Wasl FC finished level at 2-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.06 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.39 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 29% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 45%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 56%, Al-Wasl FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights