Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-2 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad Kalba. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 February 2023, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 6W 1D 3L at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Wahda FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Wahda FC are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad Kalba register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Wahda FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, Al Wahda FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Al Wahda FC trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 58% versus Al Wahda FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% | Al Wahda FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.18 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.072 / defence 1.083 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.059 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.466. Al Wahda FC's defence strength of 0.710 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 40 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 27% | Draw 24% | Al Wahda FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Al Wahda FC 2.04. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Al Wahda FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 27% | Draw 24% | Al Wahda FC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.18 / Al Wahda FC 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.072 / def 1.083 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.059 / def 0.710 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Al Wahda FC xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 0 - 2 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 27% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 2W | Draws 0 | Al Wahda FC 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Al Wahda FC's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
27%
3.74
24%
4.15
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.86
1.68
Al Wahda FC xG
3.74
27%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
5%
20.11
15%
6.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.68 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad Kalba come into this having played 40 games, going 12W 13D 15L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 40 outings (23W 11D 6L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home form reads 8W 6D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wahda FC have taken 2.20 points per game from 20 outings (13W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 12W 13D 15L in their last 40 games (1.23 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 23W 11D 6L in their last 40 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.50 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
2
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 60%, Al Wahda FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 65% for Al Wahda FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 40%; Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 60% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 65% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.18 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.68 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.07 / defence 1.08 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.71, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 27% | Draw 24% | Al Wahda FC 49%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 50%, Al Wahda FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.