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Stalemate at Al-Ittihad Kalba's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.99 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.48 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Al Wahda FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.79, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 25% | Draw 26% | Al Wahda FC 48%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 61%, Al Wahda FC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights