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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Wahda FC edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Wahda FC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.46 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.52 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 36% | Draw 24% | Al Wahda FC 39%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 65%, Al Wahda FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights