Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-0 Al Urooba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al-Ittihad Kalba welcome Al Urooba to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 November 2024 at 12:50 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 2W 4D 4L at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Urooba stand at 1W 0D 5L from 6 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.83 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Urooba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Al-Ittihad Kalba have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad Kalba register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al Urooba in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 0 for Al Urooba and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al Urooba in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% versus Al Urooba 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% | Al Urooba 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.17 xG and Al Urooba 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.071 / defence 0.890 | Al Urooba attack 0.742 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.883 / away 1.771. Data: 31 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 6 Al Urooba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Draw 20% | Al Urooba 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Al Urooba 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad Kalba (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Al Urooba 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Nov 2024, 12:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Draw 20% | Al Urooba 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.17 / Al Urooba 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.071 / def 0.890 | Al Urooba attack 0.742 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.883 / away 1.771 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (60%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Al Urooba xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba kicked off at 12:50 on Friday 1 November 2024 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 3 - 0 Al Urooba.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 60% chance of winning, Al Urooba a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 2W | Draws 0 | Al Urooba 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Al Urooba (all comps): 1W-0D-5L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack at 1.07x the league average against Al Urooba's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Urooba's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
60%
1.66
20%
4.90
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.34
1.17
Al Urooba xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
11%
8.78
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
2%
44.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.17 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad Kalba come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 2D 2L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Urooba sit at 0.50 PPG from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Urooba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad Kalba carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Al Urooba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al Urooba are on 0.83 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Urooba in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Al Urooba
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Al Urooba have gone 1W 0D 5L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Al Urooba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Urooba in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2024, when Al-Ittihad Kalba won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Al Urooba specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
0
Draws
1
Al Urooba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Al Urooba have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Al Urooba 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 50%, Al Urooba 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 67% for Al Urooba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al Urooba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al Urooba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 67% of Al Urooba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 67% of Al Urooba's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Urooba in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad Kalba run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Urooba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Al Urooba 3-0 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.17 xG and Al Urooba 1.17 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Urooba landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.07 / defence 0.89 against Al Urooba attack 0.74 / defence 1.08, drawn from 31/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Draw 20% | Al Urooba 20%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%, Al Urooba 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Urooba's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad Kalba arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ittihad Kalba scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Al Urooba managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.