Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Nasr – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al Nasr (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad Kalba face Al Nasr.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Al-Ittihad Kalba welcome Al Nasr to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 January 2027 at 13:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1W 4D 5L at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Nasr — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Nasr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al Nasr have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Nasr are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al Nasr, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Nasr have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Al Nasr in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 72% and Al Nasr 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 72% | Al Nasr 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.28 xG and Al Nasr 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.869 / defence 1.104 | Al Nasr attack 0.937 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.561. Data: 33 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 32 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 30% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 45%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Al Nasr 2.22. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Nasr at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Al Nasr 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Jan 2027, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 30% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.28 / Al Nasr 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.869 / def 1.104 | Al Nasr attack 0.937 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.561 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Al Nasr xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Nasr kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Nasr is scheduled to kick off at 13:15 on Friday 29 January 2027 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Nasr part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 30% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Nasr?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W | Draws 4 | Al Nasr 5W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Nasr in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Al Nasr's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Al Nasr's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
30%
3.30
24%
4.10
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.89
1.61
Al Nasr xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
6%
16.59
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.61 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad Kalba come into this having played 32 games, going 7W 11D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Nasr sit at 1.44 PPG from 32 outings (11W 13D 8L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Nasr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Nasr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home form reads 1W 8D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Nasr have taken 1.40 points per game from 15 outings (5W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.38 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Al Nasr in 69%.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Al Nasr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 7W 11D 14L in their last 32 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 11W 13D 8L in their last 32 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Al Nasr away?
Al Nasr's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 0.73 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when Al Nasr won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Al Nasr specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
5
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, Al Nasr have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Al Nasr 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Nasr?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad Kalba at 67%, Al Nasr at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 53% (Al Nasr). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al Nasr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 73% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 53% of Al Nasr's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.