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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira finished level at 1-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.93 xG and Al-Jazira 1.45 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Al-Jazira attack 1.08 / defence 0.85, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 24% | Draw 27% | Al-Jazira 49%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 60%, Al-Jazira 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Jazira's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.23 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights