Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 52%, yet in-form Al-Jazira provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Al-Jazira travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad Kalba. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Jazira's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad Kalba's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad Kalba register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Jazira in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 3 for Al-Jazira and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al-Jazira in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 64% and Al-Jazira 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Al-Jazira 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.22 xG and Al-Jazira 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.109 / defence 0.852 | Al-Jazira attack 1.116 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.844 / away 1.583. Data: 33 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 34 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 52% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Jazira 4.00. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Jazira (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.72 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Al-Jazira 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 52% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.22 / Al-Jazira 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.109 / def 0.852 | Al-Jazira attack 1.116 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.844 / away 1.583 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Al-Jazira xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 52% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Jazira 3W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Al-Jazira (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.22. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.34
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.72
1.50
Al-Jazira xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.41
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
11%
9.19
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
3%
37.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.50 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 9W 10D 14L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Jazira's form line: 13W 9D 11L from 33 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.12 PPG, Al-Jazira on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 5D 7L from 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 2.06 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Al-Jazira in 73%.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 games (1.12 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 13W 9D 11L in their last 33 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.06 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Sep 2023, when Al-Jazira won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Jazira 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad Kalba at 62%, Al-Jazira at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 69% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 69% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 69% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 69% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira finished level at 1-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.22 xG and Al-Jazira 1.50 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.11 / defence 0.85 against Al-Jazira attack 1.12 / defence 1.08, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 52% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 25%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 70%, Al-Jazira 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.12 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.