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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Bataeh cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Ittihad Kalba.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Bataeh beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.13 xG and Al Bataeh 0.81 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Bataeh outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.79 / defence 0.83 against Al Bataeh attack 0.80 / defence 1.07, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 43% | Draw 31% | Al Bataeh 26%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al Bataeh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 61%, Al Bataeh 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Al Bataeh's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.30 PPG, Al Bataeh 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Bataeh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights