Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-0 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Bataeh at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Bataeh make the trip to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to face Al-Ittihad Kalba in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 16:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad Kalba have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Bataeh (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Bataeh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Bataeh's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Al Bataeh are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad Kalba register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al Bataeh in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W, Al Bataeh 2W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with Al Bataeh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 69% and Al Bataeh 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad Kalba 69% | Al Bataeh 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.47 xG and Al Bataeh 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.914 / defence 1.008 | Al Bataeh attack 0.900 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.924 / away 1.730. Data: 29 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 30 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 36% | Draw 24% | Al Bataeh 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Al Bataeh 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Bataeh at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Bataeh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Al Bataeh 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 36% | Draw 24% | Al Bataeh 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.47 / Al Bataeh 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.914 / def 1.008 | Al Bataeh attack 0.900 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.924 / away 1.730 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Al Bataeh xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 16:45 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 3 - 0 Al Bataeh.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 36% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W | Draws 2 | Al Bataeh 2W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Al Bataeh (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack rating (0.91) and Al Bataeh's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Bataeh's attack (0.90x) against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 29/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
36%
2.79
24%
4.15
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.04
1.57
Al Bataeh xG
2.79
36%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
7%
13.41
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.57 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 7W 9D 13L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Bataeh's form line: 10W 8D 11L from 29 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al Bataeh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Al-Ittihad Kalba against 1.31 for Al Bataeh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 0.79 PPG from 14 outings (2W 5D 7L).
On the road, Al Bataeh have gone 6W 3D 5L from 14 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Bataeh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.59 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Al Bataeh in 72%.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Al Bataeh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 7W 9D 13L in their last 29 games (1.03 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 10W 8D 11L in their last 29 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Al Bataeh away?
Al Bataeh's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 0.79 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad Kalba won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
3
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, Al Bataeh have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al Bataeh 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 64% for Al Bataeh — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 71% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 64% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 71% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad Kalba run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Al Bataeh 3-0 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.47 xG and Al Bataeh 1.57 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Bataeh landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against Al Bataeh attack 0.90 / defence 0.84, drawn from 29/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 36% | Draw 24% | Al Bataeh 40%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Ittihad Kalba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 69%, Al Bataeh 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.03 PPG, Al Bataeh 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.