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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain drew 3-3 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.99 xG and Al Ain 1.57 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Ain outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.00 / defence 0.82 against Al Ain attack 1.25 / defence 1.07, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 46% | Draw 25% | Al Ain 29%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%, Al Ain 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Al Ain's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Ain (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights