Al-Dhafra 1-3 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sharjah FC (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Dhafra face Sharjah FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Sharjah FC travel to Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium to take on Al-Dhafra. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:10 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Dhafra haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Dhafra's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 games at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sharjah FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Sharjah FC have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sharjah FC are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sharjah FC, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for Al-Dhafra.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with Sharjah FC winning.
It is worth noting that Sharjah FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Al-Dhafra in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 50% versus Sharjah FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 54% | Sharjah FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.38 xG and Sharjah FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.860 / defence 1.004 | Sharjah FC attack 0.943 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.491. Data: 26 Al-Dhafra games / 26 Sharjah FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 36% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Sharjah FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Dhafra 30% | Sharjah FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 14:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 36% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.38 / Sharjah FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.860 / def 1.004 | Sharjah FC attack 0.943 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.491 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Sharjah FC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 14:10 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC?
Al-Dhafra 1 - 3 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 36% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Dhafra 0W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 6W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Dhafra's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Sharjah FC's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al-Dhafra's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.76
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.79
1.41
Sharjah FC xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
9%
11.38
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.41 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Al-Dhafra have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 6W 4D 16L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. Al-Dhafra haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sharjah FC's form line: 8W 5D 13L from 26 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. Sharjah FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Dhafra on 0.85 PPG, Sharjah FC on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Dhafra have posted 1.15 PPG from 13 outings (5W 0D 8L).
On the road, Sharjah FC have gone 3W 5D 5L from 13 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Dhafra are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.35 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Pre-Season
Sharjah FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 6W 4D 16L in their last 26 games (0.85 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 8W 5D 13L in their last 26 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Sharjah FC away?
Al-Dhafra's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 1.15 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sharjah FC have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al-Dhafra's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Al-Dhafra
0
Draws
7
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 0, Sharjah FC have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Al-Dhafra 1-3 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 46%, Sharjah FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Dhafra) and 54% (Sharjah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 38% of games; Sharjah FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 62% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Dhafra's matches and 54% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Dhafra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al-Dhafra 1-3 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.38 xG and Sharjah FC 1.41 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sharjah FC outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against Sharjah FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 36% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 37%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 54%, Sharjah FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Dhafra 0.85 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.