Al-Dhafra 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Dhafra at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Al Dhafra Stadium to take on Al-Dhafra. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 17 May 2022, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Dhafra stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra at Al Dhafra Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Al-Dhafra) versus 1.00 (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Dhafra, 1 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Dhafra trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 48% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 44% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.15 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.849 / defence 1.097 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.637 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.219. Data: 23 Al-Dhafra games / 23 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 42% | Draw 30% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Dhafra as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Dhafra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Dhafra 60% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 May 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 42% | Draw 30% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.15 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.849 / def 1.097 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.637 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Al-Dhafra (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 15:15 on Tuesday 17 May 2022 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al-Dhafra 0 - 1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 42% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Dhafra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Dhafra 0W | Draws 0 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Dhafra's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Al-Dhafra's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Dhafra Win
42%
2.35
30%
3.29
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.00
0.85
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
9%
11.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 0.85 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Dhafra's recent record stands at 3W 7D 13L from 23 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 8L across 23 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Dhafra heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Dhafra have managed 2W 4D 5L from 11 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 1W 5D 5L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's season.
The Goals Picture
Al-Dhafra are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.17 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 3W 7D 13L in their last 23 games (0.70 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 9W 6D 8L in their last 23 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Al-Dhafra's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 0.91 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Feb 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Dhafra's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Dhafra
0
Draws
5
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 1, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al-Dhafra 0-5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 54%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Dhafra) and 18% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai).
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 36% of games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 46% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al-Dhafra's recent games and 18% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defy the odds to beat Al-Dhafra 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al-Dhafra 0-1 at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.15 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.85 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Dhafra fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.85 / defence 1.10 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.64 / defence 1.01, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 42% | Draw 30% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 27%, with Al-Dhafra to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 44%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.