Al-Dhafra 2-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Dhafra at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah meet at Al Dhafra Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Monday 23 January 2023 at 13:15 UTC.
Form
Al-Dhafra (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra at Al Dhafra Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Al-Dhafra are significantly better at Al Dhafra Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah away from home this season: 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.30 PPG for Al-Dhafra against 0.40 for Dibba Al-Fujairah. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Al-Dhafra goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Dibba Al-Fujairah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 50% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 67% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.30 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.867 / defence 0.951 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.605 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.442. Data: 38 Al-Dhafra games / 12 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 48% | Draw 29% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 4.17. Al-Dhafra hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Dhafra as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Dhafra if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Dhafra 50% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 23 Jan 2023, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 48% | Draw 29% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.30 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.867 / def 0.951 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.605 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Al-Dhafra (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 13:15 on Monday 23 January 2023 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al-Dhafra 2 - 1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 48% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Dhafra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Dhafra's attack at 0.87x the league average against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack (0.60x) against Al-Dhafra's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 38/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Dhafra Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.49
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.13
0.83
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
6%
15.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 0.83 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Dhafra's recent record stands at 1W 1D 10L from 12 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dibba Al-Fujairah, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 10L across 12 games — 0.33 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.33 PPG for Al-Dhafra against 0.33 for Dibba Al-Fujairah. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Dhafra have managed 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.33 PPG overall — Al-Dhafra are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.33 PPG overall record — Dibba Al-Fujairah travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Dhafra are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 0.42 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 1D 10L in their last 12 games (0.33 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 1W 1D 10L in their last 12 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Dibba Al-Fujairah away?
Al-Dhafra's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 0.80 PPG; Dibba Al-Fujairah away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Dhafra have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Dhafra
1
Draws
1
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 2, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-0 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al-Dhafra have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Dhafra see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Dibba Al-Fujairah see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 60%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Al-Dhafra and 20% for Dibba Al-Fujairah.
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 40% of games; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 20% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Dhafra's recent games and 20% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Dhafra edge out Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Dhafra beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-1 at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.30 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.83 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.87 / defence 0.95 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.60 / defence 1.04, drawn from 38/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 48% | Draw 29% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 24%, with Al-Dhafra to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 67%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Dhafra 0.33 PPG, Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Dhafra win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.