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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Baniyas SC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Dhafra.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baniyas SC beat Al-Dhafra 0-2 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.84 xG and Baniyas SC 1.38 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Dhafra fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 1.19 / defence 0.98 against Baniyas SC attack 1.08 / defence 1.15, drawn from 9/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 48% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 29%, with Al-Dhafra to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Baniyas SC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 67%, Baniyas SC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Dhafra's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Baniyas SC's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Dhafra arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.44. Form was overturned, with Baniyas SC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights