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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Dhafra cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Wasl FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Dhafra beat Al-Wasl FC 3-1 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.26 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.79 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Dhafra beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 1/27 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 27% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 50%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Al-Dhafra win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 0%, Al-Wasl FC 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Al-Dhafra winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Dhafra scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Wasl FC managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights