🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Al-Dhafra defy the odds to beat Al Wahda FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Dhafra beat Al Wahda FC 1-0 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 0.74 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.62 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Wahda FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.64 / defence 1.24 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.78, drawn from 25/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 15% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 57%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Al-Dhafra win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 56%, Al Wahda FC 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Dhafra's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Al-Dhafra winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights