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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Al-Dhafra 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Jazira beat Al-Dhafra 1-2 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 0.96 xG and Al-Jazira 1.97 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.81 / defence 1.42 against Al-Jazira attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 18/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 18% | Draw 22% | Al-Jazira 61%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 56%, Al-Jazira 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Dhafra's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Jazira's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights