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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al-Dhafra welcome Al-Ittihad Kalba to Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Dhafra have gone 3W 0D 3L from 6 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Dhafra have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Al-Dhafra have gone 3W 0D 0L this season (3 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al-Dhafra are significantly better at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Al-Dhafra) versus 1.80 (Al-Ittihad Kalba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Dhafra, 2 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al-Dhafra in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 67% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 67% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.58 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 1.194 / defence 1.077 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.209 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.245. Al-Ittihad Kalba have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Al-Dhafra games / 32 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 37% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Dhafra 100% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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