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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Dhafra cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Bataeh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Dhafra beat Al Bataeh 3-1 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.43 xG and Al Bataeh 1.16 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Dhafra beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 1.12 / defence 1.07 against Al Bataeh attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 4/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 43% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 31%, with Al-Dhafra to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 75%, Al Bataeh 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Dhafra's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Al Bataeh's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Dhafra arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Dhafra scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Al Bataeh shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights