Al Bataeh 1-1 Hatta SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Bataeh at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Bataeh vs Hatta SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Hatta SC travel to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium to take on Al Bataeh. The game is scheduled for Monday 20 May 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Bataeh stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Bataeh have posted 3W 2D 5L at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hatta SC — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatta SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Hatta SC have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al Bataeh are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Bataeh register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Hatta SC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Bataeh, 0 for Hatta SC and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al Bataeh trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Hatta SC trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 73% versus Hatta SC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 73% | Hatta SC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 2.07 xG and Hatta SC 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 1.034 / defence 1.240 | Hatta SC attack 0.684 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.697. Hatta SC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Al Bataeh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Al Bataeh games / 22 Hatta SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 52% | Draw 21% | Hatta SC 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | Hatta SC 3.70. Al Bataeh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Bataeh at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 90% | Hatta SC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Hatta SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 52% | Draw 21% | Hatta SC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Bataeh 2.07 / Hatta SC 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 1.034 / def 1.240 | Hatta SC attack 0.684 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.697 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Hatta SC xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Hatta SC kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Hatta SC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 20 May 2024 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Hatta SC?
Al Bataeh 1 - 1 Hatta SC.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Hatta SC being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Hatta SC part of?
Al Bataeh vs Hatta SC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Hatta SC?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 52% chance of winning, Hatta SC a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Hatta SC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Bataeh and Hatta SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Hatta SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Hatta SC?
Record (1 meetings): Al Bataeh 0W | Draws 1 | Hatta SC 0W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Hatta SC in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Hatta SC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Bataeh's attack rating (1.03) and Hatta SC's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hatta SC's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
52%
1.92
21%
4.71
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.51
1.44
Hatta SC xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
3%
29.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Hatta SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Hatta SC expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.44 for Hatta SC, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Hatta SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Bataeh's recent record stands at 7W 6D 9L from 22 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatta SC, meanwhile, have gone 1W 5D 16L across 22 games — 0.36 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Hatta SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Bataeh by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hatta SC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Bataeh have managed 3W 3D 5L from 11 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hatta SC's away record stands at 1W 2D 8L across 11 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Bataeh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Hatta SC are on 0.73 scored and 2.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Hatta SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Hatta SC in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while Hatta SC have gone 1W 5D 16L in their last 22 (0.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Hatta SC away?
Al Bataeh's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 1.09 PPG; Hatta SC away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Bataeh and Hatta SC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Bataeh
2
Draws
0
Hatta SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Hatta SC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 0, Hatta SC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Hatta SC last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2024, when Al Bataeh 1-1 Hatta SC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hatta SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Bataeh at 82%, Hatta SC at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Al Bataeh and 64% for Hatta SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatta SC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Hatta SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Hatta SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Al Bataeh's games and 64% of Hatta SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Hatta SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Al Bataeh's matches and 64% of Hatta SC's.
Do Al Bataeh and Hatta SC tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Hatta SC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Bataeh and Hatta SC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh and Hatta SC finished level at 1-1 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 2.07 xG and Hatta SC 1.44 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Bataeh fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 1.03 / defence 1.24 against Hatta SC attack 0.68 / defence 1.31, drawn from 48/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 52% | Draw 21% | Hatta SC 27%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 73%, Hatta SC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Hatta SC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Bataeh arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Hatta SC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.