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Shock result as Dibba Al-Fujairah defy the odds to beat Al Bataeh 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Al Bataeh 0-1 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.68 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.24 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Bataeh fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 1.03 / defence 1.26 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.75 / defence 1.28, drawn from 35/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 48% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 28%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Dibba Al-Fujairah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 70%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Bataeh's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 0.60 PPG, Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dibba Al-Fujairah win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights