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Shock result as Al Bataeh defy the odds to beat Baniyas SC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Bataeh beat Baniyas SC 1-0 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.24 xG and Baniyas SC 1.72 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baniyas SC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.78 / defence 1.24 against Baniyas SC attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 28% | Draw 24% | Baniyas SC 49%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Al Bataeh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 65%, Baniyas SC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Bataeh's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Baniyas SC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 1.21 PPG, Baniyas SC 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Bataeh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights