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Shock result as Al-Wasl FC defy the odds to beat Al Bataeh 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Wasl FC beat Al Bataeh 0-1 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.63 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.41 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Bataeh fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.18, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Wasl FC 33%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Wasl FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 59%, Al-Wasl FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Bataeh's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights