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Al-Wasl FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Bataeh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Wasl FC beat Al Bataeh 1-3 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.05 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.96 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC outscored their 1.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.79 / defence 1.17 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 20% | Draw 22% | Al-Wasl FC 59%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 64%, Al-Wasl FC 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Bataeh's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights