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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Al Bataeh 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Nasr beat Al Bataeh 2-3 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.31 xG and Al Nasr 1.41 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Nasr outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.95 / defence 1.13 against Al Nasr attack 1.01 / defence 1.08, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 35% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 40%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 59%, Al Nasr 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Bataeh's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Al Nasr's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights