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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 0.91 xG and Al-Jazira 1.76 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.80 / defence 1.41 against Al-Jazira attack 0.93 / defence 0.88, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 19% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 57%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 56%, Al-Jazira 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Bataeh's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Jazira's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights