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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Bataeh and Ajman share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Bataeh and Ajman finished level at 1-1 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.30 xG and Ajman 1.42 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.81 / defence 1.25 against Ajman attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 34% | Draw 26% | Ajman 40%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 67%, Ajman 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Bataeh's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Ajman's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 1.24 PPG, Ajman 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights